You've noticed it. Your freight costs are climbing, your routing guides are failing more often, and securing capacity feels like a wrestling match you didn't sign up for.
Here's the truth: truckload spot rates are rising in 2026, and if your freight strategy hasn't evolved, you're bleeding money. The market has fundamentally shifted: carrier exits, regional imbalances, and demand volatility have rewritten the rules.
Let's break down exactly why your current approach isn't cutting it and what you can do to fix it.
The 10 Reasons Your Freight Strategy Is Failing
1. You're Still Running Annual Contract Bids
Once-a-year bidding cycles made sense when the market was predictable. Those days are gone.
Carrier capacity is exiting the market at an accelerating pace since mid-2025. Each exit reshapes regional availability mid-year, and your fixed routing guides can't adapt. By month six of your contract, the rates you locked in may have zero relevance to actual market conditions.
The fix: Shift to dynamic capacity planning with quarterly or semi-annual repricing cycles. Build flexibility into your contracts that allows adjustments as conditions change.
2. Your Carrier Network Is Too Shallow
Tender rejection rates have hit 9.97%: nearly one in ten shipments rejected. That's the highest level since 2022.
If you're relying on two or three primary carriers, you're gambling. When they reject your freight, you're scrambling into the spot market at whatever rate you can get.
The fix: Diversify aggressively. Develop relationships with secondary and tertiary carriers now, before you need them desperately. Route guide depth isn't a luxury: it's survival.
3. You're Treating the National Market as One Market
It's not. The Southeast, Midwest, and Texas are behaving completely differently from each other. Capacity has tightened significantly in the Midwest while other regions show different patterns entirely.
If you're applying the same strategy across all your lanes, you're ignoring reality.
The fix: Monitor regional markets independently. Track carrier availability and rate trends separately for each major region. Anticipate tightness before it hits your shipments, not after.
4. You Haven't Separated Your Contract and Spot Strategies
Contract rates have plateaued near carrier breakeven points. There's no relief coming from negotiating lower base rates.
Meanwhile, the dry van spot-contract spread is forecast to reach just $0.27 per mile by late Q4 2026. That buffer you used to count on? It's evaporating.
The fix: Keep contract rates stable for your core, predictable volumes. But allocate separate budget for spot market fluctuations during peak seasons and unexpected demand spikes. Build contingency rates into your forecasts: don't just hope for the best.
5. You're Waiting Until Q4 to Secure Surge Capacity
Every shipper scrambles for capacity during Q4. By then, carriers have all the leverage, rejection rates spike, and you're paying premium rates for basic service.
The fix: Build capacity buffers before Q4. Secure surge capacity in advance, even if it requires small premiums. Forward commitments beat last-minute routing guide failures every time.
6. You're Reviewing Routing Guide Performance Monthly (Or Less)
A month is an eternity in today's market. By the time you notice a carrier relationship weakening, the damage is done.
The fix: Implement real-time monitoring. Track tender rejection rates and route guide depth weekly. Use that data to identify problems and adjust commitments before capacity truly constrains your supply chain.
7. You Haven't Accounted for Weather Volatility
Winter disruptions in December 2025 created unexpectedly tight capacity conditions. And here's the kicker: each disruption now hits harder because there are fewer backup carriers available.
The shrinking carrier pool means weather events that used to cause minor inconveniences now cause major rate spikes.
The fix: Build weather contingencies into your planning. Identify backup carriers in weather-prone regions before storms hit. Have mode-switching options ready for when truckload capacity disappears.
8. Your Contracts Don't Have Flex Clauses
Truckload offers superior door-to-door service and end-to-end visibility compared to intermodal. But that premium only makes sense if you can actually secure capacity reliably.
When spot rates spike above a certain threshold, you need options: not contractual handcuffs.
The fix: Negotiate flex clauses into your contracts that allow mode switching when truckload spot rates exceed defined thresholds. Give yourself permission to pivot.
9. You're Ignoring Tariff-Driven Demand Uncertainty
Tariff policy is creating unpredictable demand patterns. Some shippers are hesitant to build inventory. Others are front-loading purchases. This uncertainty reduces overall freight volume but creates intense competition when demand does spike.
The fix: Build scenario plans for both directions:
- Demand acceleration: Spot rates will spike due to capacity constraints. Secure capacity commitments early.
- Demand destruction: You'll need carrier renegotiations. Maintain relationships even during slow periods.
Don't let policy uncertainty catch you flat-footed.
10. You're Not Collaborating With Carriers on Profitability
Carriers are under sustained margin pressure. Public truckload carrier spot rates have remained below operating costs per mile for more than two years. They're not rejecting your freight because they don't like you: they're rejecting because they literally can't afford to haul it at those rates.
The fix: Offer value beyond just the rate:
- Multi-year volume commitments
- Flexible pickup and delivery windows
- Lane loyalty programs
- Consistent, predictable freight
Carriers prioritize shippers who help them stay profitable. Be that shipper.
The Numbers You Need to Know
Here's where the market is heading, according to industry forecasts:
- 8% year-over-year spot rate growth expected for dry van in 2026
- Larger increases concentrated in H2 (second half of the year)
- Higher volatility during disruptions due to the smaller carrier pool
- Q1 rates expected to trough: this is your window to lock in favorable contract rates
If you're budgeting based on 2024 or early 2025 rates, you're going to be unpleasantly surprised.
What This Means for Your Business
The shippers who thrive in 2026 won't be the ones with the lowest rates. They'll be the ones with the most adaptable strategies.
That means:
- Flexible contracts that can adjust to market realities
- Deep carrier networks that absorb rejection spikes
- Regional intelligence that anticipates problems before they hit
- Budget contingencies for spot market volatility
- Carrier relationships built on mutual profitability
Let's Talk About Your Freight Strategy
At Firehouse Freight, we've been watching these market shifts closely. We work with shippers every day who are navigating rising spot rates, capacity constraints, and routing guide failures.
Here's what we believe: your freight partner should be helping you anticipate problems, not just reacting to them. We're transparent about market conditions, honest about what's coming, and committed to building strategies that actually work in the real world: not just on a spreadsheet from last year's bid cycle.
If your current strategy isn't keeping up with the market, let's have a conversation. No pressure, no hidden agenda. Just a straightforward discussion about what's working, what's not, and what you can do differently.
Because rising spot rates aren't going away. But with the right approach, they don't have to derail your business.
